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Probability and Statistics

GATE CSE 2021 Set 2 · Q33

MCQ2 marksMedium

Time

A bag has rr red balls and bb black balls. All balls are identical except for their colours. In a trial, a ball is randomly drawn from the bag, its colour is noted and the ball is placed back into the bag along with another ball of the same colour. Note that the number of balls in the bag will increase by one, after the trial. A sequence of four such trials is conducted. Which one of the following choices gives the probability of drawing a red ball in the fourth trial?

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Solution

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Official answer: A) (r)/(r+b)

Probability and Statistics

This experiment is a classical Pólya's Urn Model with replacement plus 11 additional ball of the drawn color.

By the exchangeability property of Pólya's urn scheme, the probability of drawing a ball of a specified color at trial nn is equal to the initial proportion of that color in the urn, for every n≥1n \ge 1.

Let RkR_k be the event that a red ball is drawn in the kk-th trial.

  1. For the first trial:

    P(R1)=rr+bP(R_1) = \frac{r}{r+b}
  2. For the second trial, by the law of total probability:

    P(R2)=P(R2∣R1)P(R1)+P(R2∣B1)P(B1)P(R_2) = P(R_2 \mid R_1)P(R_1) + P(R_2 \mid B_1)P(B_1)
    P(R2)=(r+1r+b+1)(rr+b)+(rr+b+1)(br+b)=r(r+1+b)(r+b)(r+b+1)=rr+bP(R_2) = \left(\frac{r+1}{r+b+1}\right)\left(\frac{r}{r+b}\right) + \left(\frac{r}{r+b+1}\right)\left(\frac{b}{r+b}\right) = \frac{r(r+1+b)}{(r+b)(r+b+1)} = \frac{r}{r+b}

By mathematical induction, for any nn-th trial (including the 44-th trial):

P(R4)=rr+bP(R_4) = \frac{r}{r+b}

Therefore, option A is the correct choice.

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This Probability and Statistics previous year question is Q33 of the GATE CSE 2021 Set 2 paper. Find more GATE CSE PYQs on Probability and Statistics in Engineering Mathematics, or browse all GATE CSE PYQs.

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GateAI solution cardGATE CSE 2021 Set 2 · Q33 · MCQ

A bag has r red balls and b black balls. All balls are identical except for their colours. In a trial, a ball is randomly drawn from the bag, its colour is noted and the ball is placed back into the bag along with another ball of the same colour. Note that the number of balls in the bag will increase by one, after the trial. A sequence of four such trials is conducted. Which one of the following choices gives the probability of drawing a red ball in the fourth trial?

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Independent practice explanation verified by the GateAI team. GATE is conducted by the IITs; question text follows the official paper.