This experiment is a classical Pólya's Urn Model with replacement plus 1 additional ball of the drawn color.
By the exchangeability property of Pólya's urn scheme, the probability of drawing a ball of a specified color at trial n is equal to the initial proportion of that color in the urn, for every n≥1.
Let Rk be the event that a red ball is drawn in the k-th trial.
For the first trial:
P(R1)=r+br For the second trial, by the law of total probability:
P(R2)=P(R2∣R1)P(R1)+P(R2∣B1)P(B1) P(R2)=(r+b+1r+1)(r+br)+(r+b+1r)(r+bb)=(r+b)(r+b+1)r(r+1+b)=r+br
By mathematical induction, for any n-th trial (including the 4-th trial):
P(R4)=r+br Therefore, option A is the correct choice.