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Probability and Statistics

GATE CSE 2021 Set 1 · Q54

NAT2 marksMedium

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A sender (S) transmits a signal, which can be one of the two kinds: HH and LL with probabilities 0.1 and 0.9 respectively, to a receiver (R). In the graph below, the weight of edge (u,v)(u, v) is the probability of receiving vv when uu is transmitted, where u,v∈{H,L}u, v \in \{H, L\}. For example, the probability that the received signal is LL given the transmitted signal was HH, is 0.7. If the received signal is HH, the probability that the transmitted signal was HH (rounded to 2 decimal places) is ___________.

GATE CSE 2021 Set 1 Q54 diagram

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Official answer: 0.04

Probability and Statistics

Let TT denote the transmitted signal and RR denote the received signal.

Given prior probabilities:

  • P(T=H)=0.1P(T = H) = 0.1

  • P(T=L)=0.9P(T = L) = 0.9

Conditional probabilities from the transition graph:

  • P(R=H∣T=H)=0.3P(R = H \mid T = H) = 0.3

  • P(R=L∣T=H)=0.7P(R = L \mid T = H) = 0.7

  • P(R=H∣T=L)=0.8P(R = H \mid T = L) = 0.8

  • P(R=L∣T=L)=0.2P(R = L \mid T = L) = 0.2

By the Law of Total Probability, the total probability of receiving HH is:

P(R=H)=P(R=H∣T=H)P(T=H)+P(R=H∣T=L)P(T=L)P(R = H) = P(R = H \mid T = H)P(T = H) + P(R = H \mid T = L)P(T = L)
P(R=H)=(0.3×0.1)+(0.8×0.9)=0.03+0.72=0.75P(R = H) = (0.3 \times 0.1) + (0.8 \times 0.9) = 0.03 + 0.72 = 0.75

Using Bayes' Theorem, the posterior probability P(T=H∣R=H)P(T = H \mid R = H) is:

P(T=H∣R=H)=P(R=H∣T=H)P(T=H)P(R=H)=0.030.75=375=125=0.04P(T = H \mid R = H) = \frac{P(R = H \mid T = H)P(T = H)}{P(R = H)} = \frac{0.03}{0.75} = \frac{3}{75} = \frac{1}{25} = 0.04

Rounded to 2 decimal places, the answer is 0.04.

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This Probability and Statistics previous year question is Q54 of the GATE CSE 2021 Set 1 paper. Find more GATE CSE PYQs on Probability and Statistics in Engineering Mathematics, or browse all GATE CSE PYQs.

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GateAI solution cardGATE CSE 2021 Set 1 · Q54 · NAT

A sender (S) transmits a signal, which can be one of the two kinds: H and L with probabilities 0.1 and 0.9 respectively, to a receiver (R). In the graph below, the weight of edge (u, v) is the probability of receiving v when u is transmitted, where u, v ∈ {H, L}. For example, the probability that the received signal is L given the transmitted signal was H, is 0.7. If the received signal is H, the probability that the transmitted signal was H (rounded to 2 decimal places) is …

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Independent practice explanation verified by the GateAI team. GATE is conducted by the IITs; question text follows the official paper.