Let T denote the transmitted signal and R denote the received signal.
Given prior probabilities:
P(T=H)=0.1
P(T=L)=0.9
Conditional probabilities from the transition graph:
P(R=H∣T=H)=0.3
P(R=L∣T=H)=0.7
P(R=H∣T=L)=0.8
P(R=L∣T=L)=0.2
By the Law of Total Probability, the total probability of receiving H is:
P(R=H)=P(R=H∣T=H)P(T=H)+P(R=H∣T=L)P(T=L) P(R=H)=(0.3×0.1)+(0.8×0.9)=0.03+0.72=0.75 Using Bayes' Theorem, the posterior probability P(T=H∣R=H) is:
P(T=H∣R=H)=P(R=H)P(R=H∣T=H)P(T=H)=0.750.03=753=251=0.04 Rounded to 2 decimal places, the answer is 0.04.