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Probability and Statistics

GATE CSE 2025 Set 1 · Q32

NAT1 markEasy

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A box contains 5 coins: 4 regular coins and 1 fake coin. When a regular coin is tossed, the probability P(head)=0.5P(head) = 0.5 and for a fake coin, P(head)=1P(head) = 1. You pick a coin at random and toss it twice, and get two heads. The probability that the coin you have chosen is the fake coin is ________. (rounded off to two decimal places)

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Solution

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Official answer: 0.5 (±0.01) (±0.01)

Probability and Statistics

Let RR denote the event of choosing a regular coin and FF denote the event of choosing the fake coin.

The prior probabilities are:

P(R)=45=0.8P(R) = \frac{4}{5} = 0.8
P(F)=15=0.2P(F) = \frac{1}{5} = 0.2

Let EE be the event of getting two consecutive heads (HHHH).

The conditional probabilities are:

P(E∣R)=P(head∣R)2=0.52=0.25P(E \mid R) = P(\text{head} \mid R)^2 = 0.5^2 = 0.25
P(E∣F)=P(head∣F)2=1.02=1.0P(E \mid F) = P(\text{head} \mid F)^2 = 1.0^2 = 1.0

Using Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability that the chosen coin is fake given two heads is:

P(F∣E)=P(E∣F)P(F)P(E∣F)P(F)+P(E∣R)P(R)P(F \mid E) = \frac{P(E \mid F) P(F)}{P(E \mid F) P(F) + P(E \mid R) P(R)}

Substitute the known values:

P(F∣E)=1.0×0.2(1.0×0.2)+(0.25×0.8)=0.20.2+0.2=0.20.4=0.5P(F \mid E) = \frac{1.0 \times 0.2}{(1.0 \times 0.2) + (0.25 \times 0.8)} = \frac{0.2}{0.2 + 0.2} = \frac{0.2}{0.4} = 0.5

Rounded to two decimal places, the answer is 0.50 (acceptable range: 0.490.49 to 0.510.51).

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This Probability and Statistics previous year question is Q32 of the GATE CSE 2025 Set 1 paper. Find more GATE CSE PYQs on Probability and Statistics in Engineering Mathematics, or browse all GATE CSE PYQs.

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Probability and Statistics has 46 GATE CSE PYQs across 23 papers from 2011 to 2026. 11 of them are 1-mark NAT questions like this one, and GATE CSE 2025 Set 1 has 3.

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GateAI solution cardGATE CSE 2025 Set 1 · Q32 · NAT

A box contains 5 coins: 4 regular coins and 1 fake coin. When a regular coin is tossed, the probability P(head) = 0.5 and for a fake coin, P(head) = 1. You pick a coin at random and toss it twice, and get two heads. The probability that the coin you have chosen is the fake coin is … (rounded off to two decimal places)

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